r/PredictionsMarkets: rules, karma requirements and posting culture
A young, fast growing board for people trading event contracts. Trader stories, strategy backtests and platform complaints, with no published rules and plenty of referral spam.
PredictionsMarkets · Open on Reddit
- Members
- 36k
- Created
- 2025
- New posts a day
- 12.4
- Comments on a typical post
- 4
- New posts removed
- 30%
The short answer
r/PredictionsMarkets publishes no karma or account age requirement, and it has no public rules at all. About 70% of posts in our sample stayed up, and nearly all of the rest were removed by Reddit's own filters, not by moderators. Every post we saw carried a flair, with Discussion the most common. The room is a mix of beginners asking how to win and bot builders posting backtests, and the posts that travel are stories about big traders, insiders and disputes with the platforms.
Who posts here
The same feed holds one line questions about which markets are easy and detailed strategy tests with entry rules, spreads, fees and drawdown figures. Beginner questions stay up and get answered. Claims of an easy edge are treated less kindly: commenters with trading experience explain how fast market makers react and why a backtest is probably double counting, sometimes rudely.
- Retail traders on the big event contract platforms, many of them coming from sports betting.
- Hobbyist quants and bot builders testing strategies on short crypto, weather and sports markets.
- Storytellers who track large accounts and write up big wins, losses and suspected insider trades.
- Newcomers asking about withdrawals, odds and which platform to use.
- Promoters with referral links, sign-up bonuses, picks groups and tools.
Karma and account requirements
What it takes to get a post through in r/PredictionsMarkets.
| Karma | Not stated publicly. There are no published rules and no AutoModerator messages in our sample. About 30% of posts were removed by Reddit's own filters. |
|---|---|
| Account age | Not stated publicly. |
| Post flair | Effectively required. Every post in our sample had one. Discussion is the most used at about 34%, then Question at 16%, News at 15% and Analysis at 10%. |
| Post types | Text, image, link and video are all open. About 62% of posts are text and 27% are images, usually a screenshot of a position or a chart. |
| Links | No stated rule. Referral links appear in posts that stay up, though very few comments contain links. |
What you can post
| Post type | Subreddit setting | Share of recent posts |
|---|---|---|
| Text | Allowed | 62% |
| Link | Allowed | 9% |
| Image | Allowed | 27% |
| Video | Allowed | 3% |
| Poll | Allowed | 0% |
Post flairs in use
- Discussion 34%
- Question ❓ 16%
- News 15%
- Analysis 10%
- Strategy / Guide 8%
- Winning Trader 📈 4%
- Loss / Gain 3%
- Feeback WANTED 🛠️ 3%
- Whale Spotted 🐋 2%
- Meme 2%
What happens to a new post
Where the most recent posts ended up. Sample size: 400.
- Stayed up70%
- Removed by Reddit's filters30%
- Deleted by the author1%
Reddit counts a removal by the subreddit's own AutoModerator rules as a moderator removal, so that share is not all human. Held by AutoModerator means the post is waiting in the mod queue.
What happened when we posted here
We have posted here ourselves. This is how our own posts and comments fared.
- Stayed up
- 100%
- Removed by Reddit's filters
- 0%
- Removed by moderators
- 0%
- Period
- June 2026 to July 2026
The culture
r/PredictionsMarkets was created in November 2025 and already has about 36,000 members and around 12 posts a day. It covers the whole category: politics, sports, crypto, weather and earnings markets across the major platforms. The sidebar is one line and there are no written rules, so the tone is set by whoever posted last.
Two kinds of post dominate. The first is the trader story: an account with hundreds of thousands riding on an odd bet, someone who doubled a huge win and then lost it, a person with inside access caught trading on it. These collect the highest scores, and the top post in our sample was about a trader suing a platform over a rule change. The second is the working post: a strategy test with numbers, a question about fees or bots, a gap between a market price and the polls. Those score lower but get more useful replies. The median post gets 4 comments.
The running argument is trust. Withdrawal delays, changed resolution rules, outages and worse pricing on one app than another fill the Discussion flair, and commenters are quick to call a platform a scam. The other tension is noise. With no rules to lean on, referral links, bonus offers and off topic filler sit in the feed next to careful analysis, and regulars mostly ignore them.
What lands
- A write-up of a remarkable trader or position, with the stakes, the bets and what happened, usually with a screenshot.
- Insider trading and enforcement stories, told with sources.
- A backtest that states the rules, the sample, the fees and the result, including when the result is that there is no signal.
- A grievance against a platform with specifics: amounts, dates, what support said.
- An honest question about where the edge is, such as whether market making is the only reliable one.
What gets removed or ignored
- We saw no moderator removals and there are no published rules, so there is no official list of what gets taken down.
- About 30% of posts were removed by Reddit's own filters. Reddit does not give reasons, but a new community full of money talk and referral links is the kind its spam checks hit hard.
- Around 1% of posts were deleted by their authors.
- Low effort promotion often survives the filters. It is ignored, not removed.
The unwritten rules
- Show the numbers. A claim of profit without entries, fees and sample size gets picked apart, and so does a win rate quoted without the size of the losses.
- Do not announce that you found easy money. The standard reply is that you are missing something, or that you would not post it if it were real.
- Sports bettors and market traders use different words for the same thing. Say contracts, spreads and resolution rules if you want the trading crowd to engage.
- Pick the flair that matches. Analysis and Strategy posts are read as serious, and a promo tagged as News or Strategy is spotted immediately.
- Comments are short, around 18 words, and only about 3% contain a link. Dropping a link to your tool in a reply stands out.
Self-promotion
There is no self-promotion rule, because no rules are published. In practice the feed carries referral codes, sign-up bonus posts, picks groups and tool plugs, and many of them stay up. Staying up is not the same as working. These posts get little engagement, and Reddit's filters removed about 30% of all posts in our sample. The promotion that does get read is a real analysis or a good story where the tool or platform is mentioned in passing. Expect direct questions in the comments about whether your results are real.
How people write here
- Typical post length
- 111 words
- Typical title length
- 9 words
- Titles phrased as a question
- 32%
- Typical comment length
- 18 words
- Comments that include a link
- 3%
- Posts that carry a flair
- 100%
When people post
- 0:00 UTC, 10
- 1:00 UTC, 11
- 2:00 UTC, 11
- 3:00 UTC, 13
- 4:00 UTC, 9
- 5:00 UTC, 10
- 6:00 UTC, 4
- 7:00 UTC, 16
- 8:00 UTC, 7
- 9:00 UTC, 6
- 10:00 UTC, 13
- 11:00 UTC, 9
- 12:00 UTC, 13
- 13:00 UTC, 30
- 14:00 UTC, 28
- 15:00 UTC, 38
- 16:00 UTC, 31
- 17:00 UTC, 19
- 18:00 UTC, 20
- 19:00 UTC, 30
- 20:00 UTC, 24
- 21:00 UTC, 21
- 22:00 UTC, 15
- 23:00 UTC, 12
New posts by hour of day, UTC.
Top keywords
The words and phrases that show up far more often here than in other communities, from recent posts in r/PredictionsMarkets.
- polymarket 94 posts
- kalshi 77 posts
- markets 92 posts
- prediction 67 posts
- market 95 posts
- prediction markets 44 posts
- trading 50 posts
- trade 52 posts
- prediction market 29 posts
- btc 27 posts
- trades 28 posts
- liquidity 19 posts
- novig 17 posts
- bet 29 posts
- kalshi's 14 posts
- sports 29 posts
- price 42 posts
- win 30 posts
- bets 19 posts
- win rate 13 posts
- betting 19 posts
- traders 17 posts
- profit 22 posts
- profitable 17 posts
- sharpe 8 posts
- maximum drawdown 8 posts
- poly 11 posts
- contracts 19 posts
- weather 18 posts
- edge 22 posts
- trader 14 posts
- historical 16 posts
- strategy 26 posts
- polymarket's 9 posts
- money 45 posts
- odds 16 posts
- spread 18 posts
- cents 14 posts
- withdraw 14 posts
- september 23 posts
Common questions
How much karma do you need to post in r/PredictionsMarkets?
No requirement is published, and the subreddit has no public rules. About 70% of posts in our sample stayed up. Almost all the rest were removed by Reddit's own filters, so a new account posting links may be caught even though no moderator rule forbids it.
Can I promote my tool or referral link in r/PredictionsMarkets?
Nothing in writing stops you, and referral and bonus posts do appear. They get very little response, and Reddit's filters remove a large share of posts here. A detailed analysis or strategy post that mentions your tool once will do far better than a link.
What kind of posts work in r/PredictionsMarkets?
Stories about big traders, insider cases and disputes with platforms get the most upvotes. Strategy tests and specific questions get the most useful replies. About 62% of posts are text, around 110 words long, and about a third of titles are questions. Use a flair, since every post in our sample had one.
Is r/PredictionsMarkets good for beginners?
It is usable. Basic questions about platforms, withdrawals and odds stay up and get answers. Be ready for blunt replies if you claim an easy edge, and treat any post offering free money or guaranteed picks as an ad.
Data as of October 4, 2026. Numbers come from public Reddit data (the Arctic Shift archive and GummySearch) sampled on this date. Removal share counts posts taken down by moderators, AutoModerator or Reddit's own filters. Banner and icon belong to the community. Moderators change rules without notice, so treat the sidebar as the final word.
